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A Revival of the 61-Month Wave Theory

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                                  November 24, 1990
                 this file courtesy of the Darkside at 314-644-6705
                        A Revival of the 61-Month Wave Theory
                             by Donald A. Johnson, Ph.D.
                                    P.O. Box 161
                             Kirkland, Washington 98033
        The Knowles family  CE-II  encounter with an ovoid-shaped UFO on the
        Nullarbor Plateau in Western Australia  January  20th  was  right on
        target in terms  of time and place, according to the  61-month  wave
        cycle first proposed  by  Dr. David Saunders back in 1971.  At least
        two other UFO  encounters of major  importance  occurred  that  same
        night in Australia and Tasmania.
        If the indications are correct and this is not an isolated  incident
        but the beginnings  of  a major UFO wave, we will have to reconsider
        the significance of  this  long-term  prediction  in  terms  of  our
        ability to predict and act upon the occurrence of  this  and  future
        UFO waves.
        Dr. David Saunders  first  noticed  the regularity in major American
        UFO waves (1947, 1952, 1957 and 1967)  in  the  early months of 1971
        while working with the UFOCAT computer catalog at the  University of
        He determined that  what  distinguished  these UFO waves from other,
        possibly publicity-generated UFO waves, was the shape of their
        These were waves of UFO reports  in  which  the  frequency  of daily
        reports began building  slowly,  built  to  a  crescendo,  and  then
        diminished rapidly.    These  negatively-skewed  UFO  waves occurred
        with a periodicity of five years, or more accurately 61-months, with
        an accuracy in peak prediction to within a day or so (1).
        Furthermore, another characteristic of these five-year waves was the
        progressively eastward movement of their loci of activity.
        The first wave crested in July 1947  and  occurred  predominantly in
        the Pacific and Mountain States.  The 1952 wave reached  its peak in
        late August 1952 with the majority of reports coming from Midwestern
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        Each successive wave  appeared to move approximately 30 degrees east
        in longitude.
        The absence of a 1962 wave was accounted  for  by  a search of South
        American references which revealed a Brazilian and  Argentinian  UFO
        wave in September,  and  the  1967  wave--which began on the Eastern
        seaboard of the United States--actually  crested in November of that
        year in England.
        Saunders was able to make his first prediction that a major UFO wave
        would occur in the vicinity of 30 degrees East longitude and peak in
        December 1972 over a year prior to its occurrence.
        This prediction was borne out by the occurrence of  a  UFO  wave  in
        South Africa in   late  November.   However,  most  ufologists  lost
        interest in the theory when the predicted waves for 1977-78 and 1983
        failed to materialize (so far as we can tell).
        Both of these  waves should have occurred  in  countries  controlled
        predominantly by governments unfriendly to the West.
        Saunders continues to  have faith in the theory and  has  offered  a
        consistent, convincing response  to  critics:   that it is unfair to
        judge the merits of the theory on  what we may or may not hear about
        from the Soviet Union.
        According to calculations (see table below), the next great UFO wave
        should occur between now and the beginning of March, centered at 120
        degrees East longitude.  The Nullarbor Plain is at approximately 127
        degrees East longitude.
        The wave should also unfold in the same characteristic manner as the
        earlier waves, building slowly in intensity in the  number  of daily
        reports and diminishing rapidly after reaching a peak.
                                       Table 1
                 The 61-Month Wave Cycle and Corresponding UFO Waves
          Predicted     Actual Peak      Predicted     Actual
            Date           Date           Longitude     Location
          July 1947     July 8, 1947       120o W     Northwestern U.S.
          Aug. 1952     Aug. 3, 1952        90o W     Central & Eastern U.S.
          Sep. 1957     Aug. 21, 1957       60o W     Central & Eastern U.S.
          Oct. 1962     Sep. 1962           30o W     Brazil
          Nov. 1967     Oct. 24, 1967        0o W     Atlantic, England
          Dec. 1972     Nov. 1972           30o E     South Africa
          Jan. 1978     ?                   60o E     ?
          Feb. 1983     ?                   90o E     ?
          Mar. 1988     Feb. 1988(?)       120o E     Australia(?)
          Apr. 1993                        150o E     Guam(?)
        A corrollary to  the  Saunders'  spatio-temporal wave theory is that
        physical evidence cases should occur  at approximately the same time
        world-wide; thus, if  the  Australian close encounters  continue  to
        occur during the  pre-dawn  hours, we should expect U.S. CE-II cases
        to occur in the evening hours between  4  and  10  p.m.,  since  the
        United States and Australia have a time difference  of  some 8 to 11
                                       Page 2
        We shall soon  see  if  new  evidence  merits  the revival of an old
          (1) Saunders, D.R. (1976).  A spatio-temporal  invariant for major
              UFO waves.  In N. Dornbos (ed.), Proceedings of the 1976
              CUFOS Conference.  Evanston, IL:  Center for UFO Studies.
        Vangard Note
             We received a call from a fellow working in GUAM...he had
             a photocopy of the 61CYCLE article and had projected the
             next UFO flap to occur in that region of the world.
             So, there is now a worldmap (61CYCLE.GIF) showing all the
             cycles from 1947 to what should follow for 1993 and 1998.
             Note, the flaps are projected to occur every 5 years
             (61 months) and at 30 degree longitude intervals as they
             cross the globe.  They are not exact.
             The fellow who called wondered if any person or group
             might wish to monitor this area to collect data in the
             event this cycle can be predicted.
          If you have comments or other information relating  to such topics
          as  this  paper covers,  please  upload to KeelyNet or send to the
          Vangard  Sciences address  as  listed  on the  first  page.
               Thank you for your consideration, interest and support.
            Jerry W. Decker.........Ron Barker...........Chuck Henderson
                              Vangard Sciences/KeelyNet
                      If we can be of service, you may contact
                  Jerry at (214) 324-8741 or Ron at (214) 242-9346
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